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On the morning after George W. Bush spoke to the nation from Fort Bragg, N.C., Americans started marching off to Steven Spielberg’s War of the Worlds. Both halves of this double feature invoked 9/11, perfectly timed for this particular holiday. Ever since Jaws, a movie set on the weekend of July 4, broke box-office records 30 summers ago, Independence Day has come to stand for terror as much as for freedom.

Decide for yourself if War of the Worlds is more terrifying than Jaws. Either way, it’s scarier than the president’s speech. Yet the discrepancy between Spielberg’s ability to whip up fear and Bush’s inability isn’t merely a matter of aesthetics. On Independence Day 2005, that terror gap is an ideal barometer for gauging the waning political power of a lame-duck president waging what increasingly looks like a lame-duck war.

As we saw on Tuesday night, doomsday isn’t the surefire hit it used to be for Bush. Now that the rhetorical arsenal of WMDs and mushroom clouds is bare, he had little choice but to bring back that oldie but goodie, 9/11, as the specter of the doom that awaits us if we don’t stay the course — his course – in Iraq. By the fifth time he did so, it was hard not to think of that legendary National Lampoon cover: “If you don’t buy this magazine, we’ll kill this dog.”

Planned or not, the sepulchral silence of Bush’s military audience was the perfect dazed response to what was literally a summer rerun. The president gave almost the identical televised address, albeit with four fewer 9/11 references, at the Army War College in Pennsylvania in May 2004. It’s so tired that this time around even the normally sympathetic Drudge site gave higher billing to reviews of War of the Worlds. Fewer TV viewers tuned in than for any primetime speech in Bush’s presidency. A good thing too, since so much of what he said was, as usual, at odds with reality. The president pledged to “prevent al-Qaida and other foreign terrorists from turning Iraq into what Afghanistan was under the Taliban” a full week after Newsweek and The New York Times reported on a new CIA assessment that the war may be turning Iraq into an even more effective magnet and training ground for Islamic militants than Afghanistan was for al-Qaida in the 1980s and ‘90s.

War of the Worlds makes as many references to 9/11 as Bush did. The alien attack on America is the work of sleeper cells; the garments of the dead rain down on those fleeing urban apocalypse; poignant fliers are posted for The Missing. There is also a sterling American military that rides to the rescue. Deep in the credits for War of the Worlds is a thank-you to the Department of Defense and some half-dozen actual units that participated in the movie, from the Virginia Army National Guard to a Marine battalion from Camp Pendleton, Calif. Indeed, Spielberg seems to have had markedly more success in recruiting extras for his film than the Pentagon has had of late in drumming up troops for Iraq.

That’s not the only way that War of the Worlds shows up Bush. In not terribly coded dialogue, the film makes clear that its Americans know very well how to distinguish a war of choice like that in Iraq from a war of necessity, like that prompted by al-Qaida’s attack on America. Tim Robbins – who else? – pops up to declare that when aliens occupy a country, the “occupations always fail.” Even Tom Cruise’s doltish teenage screen son is writing a school report on “the French occupation of Algeria.”

Spielberg’s movie illuminates, too, how Bush has flubbed the basic storytelling essential to sustain public support for his Iraq adventure. The president has made a tic of hammering in melodramatic movie tropes: good vs. evil, you’re with us or you’re with the terrorists, “wanted dead or alive,” “bring ‘em on,” “mission accomplished.” When you relay a narrative in that style, the audience expects you to stick to the conventions of the genre; the story can end only with the cavalry charging in to win the big final battle. That’s how Spielberg deploys his platoons, Saving Private Ryan-style, in War of the Worlds. By contrast, Bush never marshaled the number of troops needed to guarantee Iraq’s security and protect its borders; he has now defined “mission accomplished” down from concrete victory to the inchoate spreading of democracy. To start off sounding like Patton and end up parroting Woodrow Wilson is tantamount to ambushing an audience at a John Wayne movie with a final reel by Frank Capra.

Both Bush’s critics and loyalists at times misunderstand where his failure leaves America now. The left frets too much that the public just doesn’t get it — that it is bamboozled by the administration and won’t see the light until it digests the Downing Street memo. But even if they couldn’t bring themselves to vote for John Kerry, most Americans do get it. A majority of the country view the Iraq war as “not worth it” and going badly. They intuitively sense that as USA Today calculated on Friday, there have been more U.S. military deaths (roughly a third more) in the year since Iraq got its sovereignty than in the year before. Last week an ABC News/Washington Post survey also found that a majority now believe that the administration “intentionally misled” us into a war – or, in the words of the Downing Street memo, that the Bush administration “fixed” the intelligence to gin up the mission.

Meanwhile, the war’s die-hard supporters, now in the minority, keep clinging to the hope that some speech or Rovian stunt or happy political development in the furtherance of democratic Iraqi self-government can turn public opinion around. Dream on. The most illuminating of all the recent poll numbers was released by the Pew Research Center on June 13: The number of Americans who say that “people they know are becoming less involved emotionally” with news of the war has risen from 26 percent in May 2004 to 44 percent now. Like the war or not, Americans who do not have a relative or neighbor in the fight are simply tuning Iraq out.

The president has no one to blame but himself. The color-coded terror alerts, the repeated John Ashcroft press conferences announcing imminent Armageddon during election season, the endless exploitation of 9/11 have all taken their numbing toll. Fear itself is the emotional card Bush chose to overplay, and when he plays it now, he is the boy who cried wolf. That’s why a film director engaging in utter fantasy can arouse more anxiety about a possible attack on America than our actual commander in chief hitting us with the supposed truth.

If anything, we’re back where we were in the lazy summer of 2001, when the president was busy in Crawford ignoring an intelligence report titled “Bin Laden Determined to Attack Inside the United States” and the news media were more preoccupied with a rash of Jaws-like shark attacks than with al-Qaida. The sharks are back, and the “missing girl” drama of Natalee Holloway has echoed the Chandra Levy urtext. Even the World Trade Center is making a comeback, if we are to believe that the new Freedom Bunker unveiled for ground zero might ever be built.

As those on all sides of the Iraq argument have said, the only way for Bush to break through this torpor is to tell Americans the truth. Donald Rumsfeld did exactly that when he said a week ago that the insurgency in Iraq might last as long as 12 years. If that’s so, then what? Go ahead and argue that pulling out precipitously or setting a precise exit timetable is each a bad option, guaranteeing that Iraq will become even more of a jihad central than this ill-conceived war has already made it. But what is Plan C?

Bush could have addressed that question honestly on Tuesday night. Instead of once more cooking the books – exaggerating the number of coalition partners, the number of battle-ready Iraqi troops, the amount of non-American dollars in the Iraq kitty – he could have laid out the long haul in hard facts, explaining the future costs in manpower, money and time, and what sacrifices he proposes for meeting them. He could have been, as he is fond of calling himself, a leader.

It was a blown opportunity, and it’s hard to see that there will be another chance. Iraq may not be Vietnam, but The Wall Street Journal reports that the current war’s unpopularity now matches the Gallup findings during the Vietnam tipping point, the summer of 1968. As the prospect of midterm elections pumps more and more genuine fear into the hearts of Republicans up for re-election, it’s the Bush presidency, not the insurgency, that will be in its last throes. Is the commander in chief so isolated in his bubble that he does not realize this?GWB, phone home.

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