July 15, 2025 Breaking News, Latest News, and Videos

Big Out-Migration Slowdown Should End a False Political Theme:

Don’t expect any of them to admit it, but it turns out they were wrong – all those politicians who whined for many years that high taxes and lousy business conditions were pushing Californians to leave for other states.

That claim has been a firmament of campaigns by the “out” party, whichever one doesn’t hold the governor’s office at any moment, since the 1980s. Any politician who wants to take that office away from an incumbent invariably claims he or she can stanch the outflow.

It turns out none of them could, from current Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger to predecessors like Pete Wilson, Gray Davis and George Deukmejian.

That’s because the tide of middle-class Californians leaving the state has never had much to do with taxes, the business climate or jobs. Rather, it was mostly about housing prices. Don’t bet on this happening, but the new reality means the out-migration theme really ought to disappear from political discourse.

In fact, the same tide that sent hundreds of thousands of Californians to Arizona, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, and Texas, also was responsible for the vast growth of inland California from the Sacramento and San Joaquin valleys to Riverside and San Bernardino counties.

Both those tides appear to be be quelling. For the real impetus behind large-scale population movement was – surprise – money. As long as residents of coastal California counties from San Diego to Ventura, San Mateo and Marin could sell their homes for enormous profits and then buy much larger properties in other states or inland counties with cash left over, they did it. Many wound up with larger digs and smaller mortgages – or no mortgages at all, learn about Form G-28: entry of appearance.

In 2004-05, for example, more than 47 percent of all moves within the United States were housing related, with the largest share motivated by a desire for bigger, better and cheaper homes, according to a new Brookings Institution study based on information from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Internal Revenue Service. By contrast, less than 18 percent of moves were related to jobs, and the majority of those involved transfers.

But last year, housing motivated only 17 percent of all moves, a drop of about two-thirds from five years earlier, while job-related moves accounted for 34 percent of moves. Meanwhile, the actual number of job-related moves was lower than it had been for the last decade.

In short, all those shouts about high taxes, illegal immigration, and business conditions causing a middle-class population drain were mostly hogwash. So are the similar bleats heard today. There may have been a bit of those factors at work, but the Brookings study shows that while there was an outflow of almost 300,000 Californians to other states at the peak of the migratory wave, housing profits were the fuel, not the supposed conditions loudly and scurrilously exploited by politicians like Schwarzenegger.

When the housing bubble popped, the game of musical chairs mostly ended.

Besides a hoped-for but unlikely muting of self-serving myths, the migration change could have one other political effect: It might prevent California from losing one of its 53 seats in the House of Representatives, or even cause another to be tossed our way.

For even as the domestic out-migration dwindles, international in-migration continues (the San Francisco Bay area had a net in-migration of about 5,000 from other parts of the United States last year, while the Los Angeles area’s losses to other American regions including inland California amounted to about 100,000 – one-third of prior levels. At the same time, international immigration brought 27,000 new residents to the Bay area and 89,000 to L.A.).

Prior to release of the Brookings study, the general assumption was that states like Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida had absorbed enough former Californians to drain at least one House seat away from California.

But if the 2008 patterns continue through this year, there’s every reason to believe California won’t lose any of its current clout in Congress or much of its share of federal spending.

For even though immigration from Mexico – both legal and illegal – is far reduced from the levels of even two years ago, international immigration from other parts of the world remains steady. There is no shortage of newcomers from Asia and the Middle East.

The bottom line: The real world’s intrusion has now shown some of the most inflammatory political rhetoric of the last two decades was a red herring, and voters should know that any politician who continues trying to pin the past California exodus on high taxes or a bad business climate is a conscious liar.

Thomas Elias

Mirror Contributing Writeropinion@smmirror.com

in News
<>Related Posts

California Hits Two-Thirds Clean Energy Milestone

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

This year, clean energy has powered the state for an average of seven hours daily, with over 90% of days...

Venice Beach to Host First Medal at 2028 Olympics

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

Venice Beach, known for its vibrant boardwalk, will kick off the 844 ticketed events, hosting the triathlon along its coastline...

Santa Monica Man Arrested for Allegedly Exporting Electronics to Iran

July 14, 2025

July 14, 2025

Ostovari, identified as the CEO of a Tehran-based engineering firm, allegedly orchestrated the scheme since 2018  A 66-year-old Santa Monica...

Federal Judge Sides with Santa Monica, Other Local Governments Against Immigration Raids

July 14, 2025

July 14, 2025

Santa Monica Mayor Lana Negrete praised the ruling, saying it reaffirmed the city’s commitment to protecting residents from unjust detention...

Veterans Tech Group to Launch Los Angeles Chapter with Networking Event

July 14, 2025

July 14, 2025

Founded in San Francisco, VetsInTech operates 20 chapters nationwide and claims more than 60,000 veterans VetsInTech, a national nonprofit that...

Film Review: Jurassic World: Rebirth

July 13, 2025

July 13, 2025

“The story is simplistic and predictive, and that’s all it needs to be, because the age-old battle to survive the...

Santa Monica Assault Suspect Faces Multiple Charges, Authorities Seek Additional Victims

July 13, 2025

July 13, 2025

Marbra allegedly assaulted a 52-year-old woman on the Strand in Santa Monica, facing a felony count of assault with intent...

SM.a.r.t.Column: Does the Rand Corporation have a future in Santa Monica?

July 13, 2025

July 13, 2025

“Although no one said it outright, it is clear to all that RAND is feeling—and will continue to feel—the impact...

County Health Leaders Decry Federal Policy Barring Undocumented from Programs

July 12, 2025

July 12, 2025

The officials argued the policy jeopardizes care for all residents, noting it could deter people—regardless of status—from seeking treatment  Leaders...

County Supervisors Move to Preserve Measure J Amid Charter Error

July 12, 2025

July 12, 2025

Measure J mandates that at least 10% of the county’s locally generated, unrestricted funds be allocated to community investments like...

LA Medical Center Seeks Help Identifying Unconscious Patient

July 12, 2025

July 12, 2025

He has been unconscious since admission, and staff have been unable to determine his identity Los Angeles General Medical Center,...

Mayor Bass Issues Directive to Protect Immigrant Communities

July 12, 2025

July 12, 2025

The order expands access to city resources for affected families and requests records from ICE, including details on arrests Mayor...

Downtown Santa Monica CEO Andrew Thomas to Step Down

July 11, 2025

July 11, 2025

Thomas, who rejoined DTSM, Inc. in 2022, oversaw the introduction of a private security program, expanded homeless outreach, and boosted...

Conservancy to Tour Historic Miles Playhouse at State of the City Event

July 11, 2025

July 11, 2025

Built in 1929, the Miles Playhouse serves as the centerpiece of Lincoln Park The Santa Monica Conservancy will offer 15-minute...

Sen. Ben Allen Highlights Challenges, Economic Gains for LA28 Olympics

July 11, 2025

July 11, 2025

The remarks came during the first informational hearing of the Senate’s Special Committee on International Sporting Events State Sen. Ben...