July 3, 2025 Breaking News, Latest News, and Videos

GOP Revival Will Take Big Orange County Change:

For more than half a century, the Election Night fate of California Republican candidates could be foretold early in the vote count: If a Republican emerged from Orange County with a lead of 250,000 or more votes, he or she would almost always win statewide office.

That’s what it took to overcome the big majorities Democrats could count on in places like San Francisco and Alameda County.

But as things now stand, it’s virtually impossible for any Republican to win the OC by that large a margin. At the same time, where the state’s biggest county, Los Angeles, was once a tossup with voters inside the LA city limits going strongly Democratic and suburbanites voting Republican, that’s changed, too. Democrats now hold all but a few state elective offices in Los Angeles County, both inside and outside the eponymous city limits.

But it’s in Orange County that Republican problems are most obvious. The GOP held an 18 percentage-point voter registration lead over Democrats as recently as 2001; today that edge has slipped to just 10 percent. Registered Republicans still outnumber Democrats in the OC, but only by 583,625 to 442,378, according to the secretary of state (http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/ror/ror-pages/ror-odd-year-2013/county.pdf). That’s a margin of about 140,000 – a far cry from that vital 250,000-vote threshold.

With about one-fourth of the county’s voters refusing to choose a party label, Republicans would need a near sweep of the independent vote to reach their once commonly attainable margin.

This matters to every Californian, not only because a narrow victory in an Orange County district was a key factor in giving Democrats their current two-thirds supermajority in the state Assembly, but because it’s in the interest of everyone to have competitive political races. Without that, there is little pressure on the dominant Democrats to compromise on anything, little motive for them to resist the impulse to create new program after new program, each costing tax dollars.

Yes, Gov. Jerry Brown might act as a check on this proclivity – he has, so far – but he won’t be governor forever and other Democratic prospects from Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom to wealthy civil rights lawyer Molly Munger have never evinced the skinflint side Brown can display.

Every Republican politician in California admits the party is on life support, with virtually no chance today in districts outside a few in the inland parts of the state, including the Central Valley and several parts of the Inland Empire, coastal Orange County and northern San Diego County.

Even some of those longtime strongholds are threatened today. Example: San Diego, long a GOP bastion that’s home to many thousands of conservative-leaning military retirees, now has a Democratic mayor.

It is mostly Latino voters that have transformed the California political map, but even running an attractive, moderate Latino Republican is often not enough to change things. The best example of this may be what happened to Abel Maldonado in a Santa Barbara County congressional district last fall. Maldonado, a former appointive lieutenant governor and father of the state’s “top two” primary election system, ran a strong campaign against incumbent Democrat Lois Capps, even seeming to win their debates. But he still lost by 8 percent as the majority of independent voters in his district spurned him.

It would take a sea-change in the state GOP’s attitude toward illegal immigration to change Latino feelings about the party’s label, negatively cemented in 1994 by then-Gov. Pete Wilson’s strong support for the anti-illegal immigrant Proposition 187 and the draconian restrictions it sought to place on the undocumented. The measure went so far as to deny emergency room care to the sick and injured if they lacked proper papers.

It was no accident when more than 2.5 million Latinos became naturalized citizens in the three years after that, almost all registering as Democrats.

It was also no coincidence that the late ‘90s saw congressional seats covering most of inland, northern Orange County start to go Democratic on a regular basis. First in that trend was the narrow victory of Democratic Latina Loretta Sanchez over Republican veteran Bob Dornan in 1996.

That’s emblematic of what has happened in most of the state, which once had a nearly even split in its congressional delegation, but now sees Democrats dominating by a lopsided 38-15 count.

The bottom line: To recover, Republicans must do something (immigration amnesty beyond green cards for the highly educated would be a start) to reverse their miserable image among Latinos. And they need to start in their Orange County heartland.

in Opinion
<>Related Posts

SM.a.r.t.Column: Happy Fourth of July 

July 2, 2025

July 2, 2025

SMart (Santa Monica Architects for a Responsible Tomorrow) hopes you are enjoying a great 3-day weekend as part of your...

SM.a.r.t Column: Cities That Never Shut Up – The Roaring Cost of Urban Noise

June 26, 2025

June 26, 2025

In today’s cities, silence isn’t golden—it’s extinct. From sunrise to insomnia, we’re trapped in a nonstop symphony of shrieking car...

SM.a.r.t Column: Santa Monica Needs to See the Light

June 19, 2025

June 19, 2025

How Santa Monica’s Growing Light Pollution Is Eroding Human Health, Safety, and Sanity There was a time when our coastal...

SM.a.r.t Column: California’s Transit Death Spiral: How Housing Mandates Are Backfiring

June 15, 2025

June 15, 2025

California’s ambitious housing mandates were supposed to solve the affordability crisis. Instead, they’re creating a vicious cycle that’s killing public...

SM.a.r.t. Column: A City Dying by a Thousand Cuts

June 5, 2025

June 5, 2025

Santa Monica, once celebrated for its blend of coastal charm and progressive ideals, is slowly bleeding out — not from...

SM.a.r.t Column: Oops!! What Happened? And What Are You Going to Do About It?

May 29, 2025

May 29, 2025

Our Santa Monica Architects for a Responsible Tomorrow (SMa.r.t) articles have, over the past 12 years, collectively presented a critical...

SM.a.r.t Column: Why Santa Monica Might Need a Desalination Plant, and Maybe Even Nuclear Power

May 22, 2025

May 22, 2025

Santa Monica is known for its ocean views, sunny skies, and strong environmental values. But there’s a challenge on the...

SM.a.r.t Column: SMO (So Many Options) Part 3: “Pie in the Sky”

May 17, 2025

May 17, 2025

SMO: Fantasy, Fact, and the Fog of Wishful ThinkingBy someone who read the fine print Every few months, a headline...

SM.a.r.t. Column: Owner Occupancy Protects Against Corporate Over-Development

May 2, 2025

May 2, 2025

This week SMa.r.t. will have as guest columnist Mark Borenstein. Mark is a long-time Santa Monica resident, a retired attorney,...

Opinion: Declaration of Economic State of Emergency in Malibu & Pacific Palisades: A Direct Result of the Devastating Impact of the Palisades Fire

April 27, 2025

April 27, 2025

Malibu and Pacific Palisades Request Emergency Financial Measures By Ramis Sadrieh, Chairperson, Malibu Pacific Palisades Chamber of Commerce    On behalf...

SM.a.r.t Column: The World’s Happiest Cities

April 27, 2025

April 27, 2025

Almost every year, we see new cities, regions, and countries that make the list(s) of our planet’s happiest and healthiest...

SM.a.r.t Column: A City for Everyone

April 20, 2025

April 20, 2025

Santa Monica dazzles with its ocean views, sunshine, and laid-back charm. But beyond the postcard image lies a more complicated...

SM.a.r.t Column: Part II: Rebuilding Resilient Communities: Policy and Planning After the Fires

April 13, 2025

April 13, 2025

The January 2025 wildfires that devastated Pacific Palisades and Altadena left an indelible mark on Los Angeles County. Beyond the...

SM.a.r.t Column: Innovative Materials for Fire-Resistant Rebuilding After the LA Fires

April 6, 2025

April 6, 2025

In the aftermath of the devastating 2025 Los Angeles wildfires, homeowners face the daunting task of rebuilding their lives and...

Opinion: Supervisor Lindsey P. Horvath Community Column Regarding a More Accountable Homeless Services System

April 3, 2025

April 3, 2025

By Lindsay Horvath, Los Angeles Board of Supervisors This week marks a significant milestone in our fight to end homelessness...