July 18, 2025 Breaking News, Latest News, and Videos

Santa Monica Must Prepare for Rising Sea Levels

(This article was published three years ago this month. SMa.r.t. believes its relevance has withstood the test of time. It has been edited for brevity). 

Three weeks ago Dr. David Revell gave a presentation outlining what sea level rise might mean for Santa Monica. 

With the usual disclaimers about the uncertainty of all predictive modeling, he suggested that oceanographers are predicting for Santa Monica Bay a 2- to 5-foot rise by the year 2100. This range is not unusual since globally we are seeing a 1-inch rise per year while in Santa Monica Bay the rise has only been about one-eighth of an inch per year. 

This discrepancy cannot endure for long, so sometime in the coming decades we might see a sudden increase in the size of our own sea level rise. 

Although a one-eighth-inch rise per year now may sound trivial, the real punch comes when you add this to the typical 7-foot tidal fluctuations plus the 7-foot storm surge by periodic severe storms (which occur about once every 50 years). For example, 33 years ago, in 1983, a putative 50-year storm tore off the western third of the Santa Monica Pier, requiring a multi-million-dollar reconstruction that continues with upgrades to this day. 

If we combine the 100-year storm with only a 3-foot projected sea level rise, we lose the parking lot north of the pier and the lifeguard station headquarters, part of Muscle Beach and about half the bike path north of the pier. 

At a 6-foot sea level rise plus the 100-year storm, we would lose: large buildings along the boardwalk (the Sea Castle, Shutters, Casa del Mar), about half the buildings north of the pier, all the bike path and bathrooms plus virtually all the parking lots. Finally, Pacific Coast Highway would be cut at Channel Road. That level of damage would be a serious blow to the tax base of the City and its tourist industry, not to mention the temporary loss of PCH. It’s unclear in this scenario what would happen to the pier.

There are other, less obvious effects of sea level rise unrelated to storm surge, including the problem of possible saltwater intrusion into our water table, the destabilization of buildings during an earthquake due to an enlarged liquefaction zone and possible basement flooding from a raised water table.

Finally, we need to add the possibility of tsunamis generated by far-off earthquakes. In 2015 the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration examined 19 hypothetical earthquakes from across the Pacific for their tsunami potential and found only one that would have the potential to generate a significant wave (13 feet) large enough to endanger Santa Monica. 

All the 18 other earthquake sources generated waves no higher than 7 feet, about as bad as a 50-year storm. While sea level rise and 100-year storms play out relatively slowly, a tsunami with the potential to hit Santa Monica would arrive in only 14 hours. 

The last time we had a significant tsunami event was from Chile in 1960 with a wave less than 6 feet in height that came ashore 300 feet and halfway into the parking lots south of Pico Boulevard. If that tsunami were to come ashore along with a 5-foot sea level rise, it could generate a 19-foot wave that would scrub everything clear to the base of the Palisades Park bluff as well as put a dent into the first block south of Ocean Park Boulevard.

SMa.r.t. recommends the following concrete steps we can take today to be ready for the impact of the inevitable sea rise:

1. Initiate a study for preserving the pier. The pier is arguably our most iconic asset and deserves the highest level of long term protection. This might involve protecting it by lengthening or raising its breakwater, which will continue to lose its protective capacity. It might also involve planning how to physically raise the pier in place. 

2. Initiate a long-term study with Caltrans to protect PCH, which will eventually have to be raised higher than its current elevation. Eventually, that raised highway will hit the ceiling of the McClure Tunnel. That choke point needs to be reevaluated in light of sea level rise before such speculative plans as the 4th Street crossover, the Wyndham Hotel expansion or covering the freeway are initiated. 

3. Initiate a study of how to protect our beach assets (bathrooms, bike paths, parking lots). The study would identify cost-effective solutions, including when to retreat gracefully as opposed to the bankrupting cash hemorrhage of rebuilding them after every major storm.

4. Identify realistic funding sources commensurate with the challenge of protecting, adapting or retreating from our most valuable beachfront. This literal rainy day fund would grow slowly and be deployed periodically when needed .

More than 80 years ago, the Santa Monica breakwater was completed and over the decades the sand buildup from that breakwater, along with a one-time sand bonanza from dredging Marina del Rey, provided us about a 600-foot sand buffer to the ocean. That awesome buffer is the investment that now buys us time needed for our wealthy City to respond gracefully with a well-conceived plan to address the current sea level rise. 

We should be as prescient today as our civic ancestors were then. Their stewardship has given us such priceless jewels as the pier, our beaches, Palisades Park and our own water system. We should not waste the gift of their wisdom. We need, literally, to “get ahead of the wave.”

Mario Fonda-Bonardi for SMa.r.t. (Santa Monica Architects for a Responsible Tomorrow)

Thane Roberts Architect, Robert H. Taylor AIA, Daniel Jansenson Architect, Building and Fire-Life Safety Commissioner, Ron Goldman FAIA, Samuel Tolkin Architect, Mario Fonda-Bonardi AIA, Planning Commissioner, Phil Brock Arts Commissioner.

<>Related Posts

Man Arrested in Brentwood for Impersonating Firefighter During Palisades Fire

July 18, 2025

July 18, 2025

The suspect faces at least 28 criminal counts—including 23 felonies—spanning incidents from 2023 to May 2025 Federal and local law...

West Coast Premiere of ‘The Opposite of Love’ Opens at Hudson Backstage Theatre

July 18, 2025

July 18, 2025

Produced by Neil Gooding Productions, behind shows like Back to the Future: The Musical, the play runs Thursdays through Saturdays at...

Study Highlights Economic Impact of Cap-and-Trade Extension in Los Angeles

July 18, 2025

July 18, 2025

Governor Gavin Newsom and legislative leaders are pushing to reauthorize the program this year, citing its role in generating 287,000...

Film Review: Superman

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

“This movie is packed with storyline, Superman lore, meaningful objects, and action.” writes Kathryn Whitney Boole Rated PG-13129 MinutesReleased July...

Multiple Drug Arrests Reported in Palisades Park in Recent Weeks

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

SMPD Reported Several of the Arrests Between June 29 and July 5 The Santa Monica Police Department reported several drug-related...

(Video) Did You Know Emma Chamberlain’s Coffee Shop is in Century City?

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

The outpost is a first for the popular influencer Did You Know Emma Chamberlain’s Coffee Shop is in Century City?...

Mayor Bass Hails National Guard Withdrawal as Victory for Unity

July 17, 2025

July 17, 2025

The Pentagon’s decision to reduce the troop presence follows weeks of legal challenges and public demonstrations Mayor Karen Bass celebrated...

DUI Checkpoints to be Conducted Across LA This Weekend

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The LAPD selects checkpoint sites based on data indicating high incidents of impaired driving-related crashes and arrests The Los Angeles...

SMPD to Conduct Bicycle and Pedestrian Safety Operation on Friday

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The focus will be on speeding, illegal turns, failing to yield or provide right of way to cyclists or walkers,...

Dodgers to Host Back to School Bash for Fire-Affected Families

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The free event will offer free groceries, school supplies, outfits, haircuts, medical screenings, and carnival rides The Los Angeles Dodgers...

LA Sees Second Straight Year of Homelessness Decline, Leaders Celebrate Progress

July 16, 2025

July 16, 2025

The survey, designed by the University of Southern California, reported a 17.5% drop—the largest two-year decrease on record The Los...

LAPD Seeks Missing 63-Year-Old Man Known to Frequent Playa Vista

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

His family last heard from him via a group text on June 22 The Los Angeles Police Department’s Missing Persons...

Santa Monica Offers City-Owned Properties for Affordable Housing Development

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

The move aims to address the city’s Regional Housing Need Assessment of 8,895 units, with a goal of producing at...

California Hits Two-Thirds Clean Energy Milestone

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

This year, clean energy has powered the state for an average of seven hours daily, with over 90% of days...

Venice Beach to Host First Medal at 2028 Olympics

July 15, 2025

July 15, 2025

Venice Beach, known for its vibrant boardwalk, will kick off the 844 ticketed events, hosting the triathlon along its coastline...