October 29, 2020 Breaking News, Latest News, and Videos

A GOP Statewide Win Probably Won’t Happen:

These are days of optimism, maybe even delusion, for the California Republican Party, which hasn’t won a statewide race of any kind since 2006.

Despite the fact that Democrats won majorities in June primary races for five out of the seven statewide constitutional offices, the GOP still thinks it can win at least one slot. But that’s not likely, no matter how healthy it might to have folks from two parties in office..

Republicans’ thinking might be epitomized by former state party chairman Ron Nehring, now running for lieutenant governor. Nehring took just 23.8 percent of the primary vote, while incumbent Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom won 49.9 percent – just a few votes show of a majority – but Nehring believes he achieved a lot in June.

True, he did land a slot in the November runoff. But he won just 976,000 votes, compared with 2,082,000 for Newsom. Democrats together netted better than 55.5 percent of the total vote for that office.

Add to this the fact that June saw a record-low turnout of all voters, the Democratic vote depressed even further than the GOP’s. If the pattern of the last non-presidential statewide runoff election holds again, almost twice as many voters will fill out ballots this fall as last spring, the increase even greater among Democrats.

And yet, Nehring says of his spring performance, “Our campaign finished strong.” He called Newsom “the weakest link” among Democrats, noting that of the five incumbent Democrats seeking reelection, Newsom was the only one not getting a clear majority in the June vote.

As a side note, this goes to show the idiocy of a top two primary election law provision that forces primary candidates who win clear majorities to run again in November. Almost certainly, that will be a complete waste of everyone’s time, money and attention this fall, as Gov. Jerry Brown (54.3 percent) and the other majority-winning Democrats will likely roll up margins at least as large as their primary edges.

But still, Republicans like Nehring believe they can pull off upsets. They are looking closely at the campaigns for state controller and secretary of state.

In the run for controller, the state’s check-writing officer, Republican Mayor Ashley Swearengin of Fresno topped all primary vote-getters with 24.8 percent, while the total GOP vote came to 44.8 percent. If every GOP vote cast in the primary wound up with Swearengin, she would still be about 5 percent behind the total Democratic vote. Another 6 percent of primary voters went for Green Party candidate Laura Wells, who will not be on the fall ballot. It’s a good bet most of her votes will go Democratic this time – not to mention the fact that Democratic turnout in general will be up more than the GOP’s.

So no matter how attractive and solid a candidate Swearengin may be – and she is both – it’s pure delusion to think she’s the fall favorite, as some in the GOP now bill her.

Over in the run for secretary of state, another solid and attractive Republican candidate was the leading vote-getter on primary election day, but not after all absentee and provisional ballots were counted. By then, Republican Pete Peterson, a Pepperdine University professor, trailed Democratic state Sen. Alex Padilla by more than 22,000 votes. Meanwhile, the total Democratic vote came to about 55 percent, so for Peterson to win in November, he’d need to win over about one-tenth of all voters who went Democratic in the spring, plus all those who voted Green and the 9 percent who went for Independent Dan Schnur, an academic who formerly was a GOP political operative. Plus a majority of the voters who didn’t turn out for the primary.

The upshot is that it’s highly unlikely any Republican can win any statewide office this fall, no matter how wishful their thinking may be just ahead of Election Day.

Which means Democratic consultant Garry South’s conclusion in a memo about the controller’s race also applies to the contests for secretary of state and lieutenant governor: “When you hear the spin from Republicans about how Swearengin is a truly viable candidate in the general election – she finished first in the primary, she’s an attractive and media-savvy candidate, blah, blah, blah – compare it to the actual metrics… and this ain’t happenin’ for Swearengin.” Nor for Peterson and Nehring.

No matter how comforting Republican illusions may be today.

in News
Related Posts

Alzheimer’s Association Walk to End Alzheimer’s Across Santa Monica Raises $96,000

October 27, 2020

October 27, 2020

Santa Monica and Westside residents walked throughout the city’s neighborhoods, parks and trails, waving flags and sporting purple outfits to...

Edify TV: Halloween Amid COVID-19

October 27, 2020

October 27, 2020

With LA County health officials prohibiting many Halloween activities and discouraging trick or treating, costume stores like Ursula’s Costumes in...

Owner Says Missing French Bulldog Seen With Homeless Man Throughout Santa Monica

October 26, 2020

October 26, 2020

Social media effort to find missing French Bulldog ‘Melo’ By Sam Catanzaro The owners of a missing French Bulldog say...

Courts Dismiss Challengers To Santa Monica Airport Closure: Santa Monica Beat – October, 26, 2020

October 26, 2020

October 26, 2020

Local news and culture in under 5 minutes. * Courts Dismiss Challengers To Santa Monica Airport Closure * Early Voter...

Edify TV: Historic Venice Church Damaged in Fire

October 26, 2020

October 26, 2020

A 100 year old church in Venice recently caught fire and some think arson was responsible. Learn more in this...

Santa Monica Police to Increase Presence Ahead of Election

October 26, 2020

October 26, 2020

Elevated police presence to begin October 30 department says By Sam Catanzaro Santa Monica police say they will increase their...

Santa Monica School Board Approves Purchases $21 Million Building

October 25, 2020

October 25, 2020

Santa Monica Malibu School Board votes 6-1 to purchase office building at 1717 4th Street By Toi Creel The Santa...

City Council Endorsements: Santa Monica Needs a Change

October 22, 2020

October 22, 2020

Santa Monica City Council endorsements from the Santa Monica Mirror The following are two endorsement articles from Santa Monica Mirror...

Crime in Santa Monica Is Declining: Santa Monica Beat – October, 22, 2020

October 22, 2020

October 22, 2020

Local news and culture in under 5 minutes. * Crime in Santa Monica Is Declining * 335 Homeless Residents Housed...

Forma Expanding to Main Street: Westside Food Scene

October 22, 2020

October 22, 2020

Westside Food Scene October 22, 2020 By Kerry Slater Forma Expanding to Main Street Popular Santa Monica Italian restaurant Forma...

California Supreme Court to Hear Santa Monica Voting Rights Case

October 22, 2020

October 22, 2020

Court to rule on future of at-large elections in Santa Monica By Sam Catanzaro The California Supreme Court will determine...

LA County Says Younger Adults and Teenagers Are Driving COVID-19 Cases

October 20, 2020

October 20, 2020

68 percent of new cases among people between ages of 12 and 50 By Sam Catanzaro Los Angeles County health...

Santa Monica Has Issued Over 40 Face Covering Citations

October 20, 2020

October 20, 2020

City expanding COVID-19 compliance efforts with the addition of “Health Ambassadors”  By Sam Catanzaro The City of Santa Monica says...

Grand Jury Indicts Former Angel Employee in Tyler Skaggs’ Fatal Overdose

October 19, 2020

October 19, 2020

Fort Wayne grand jury indicts Eric Prescott Kay on drug distribution and drug conspiracy charges By Sam Catanzaro A federal...